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British Columbia log exports decline by 16 percent in the first seven months of 2018 compared with the same period in 2017. Pine sawtimber prices in the US South showed modest improvements in 2018Q3. Trade growth between US and China has decelerated in 2018H1 compared with the same period in 2017. New Zealand export log market hurt by US trade war with China.
Retaliatory tariffs announced by the Chinese government in August target an array of softwood lumber, logs, and panels. Domestic and export log prices continue to move together in the Lower Columbia River region. Lumber production in Eastern Canada approaches capacity. Volume of US plywood imports on record pace.
Strong Chinese demand for North American sawlogs in 2018H1. Douglas-fir log prices correct downwards across the Pacific Northwest. North American lumber prices continue to decline from historic highs. 2018Q2 home affordability at lowest level in 10 years.
Softwood log imports to China off to a strong start in 2018 after reaching a record high volume in 2017. Australian commercial forestry plantation harvests at record levels. North American lumber prices correcting downwards. Home ownership rate ticks up, reaching 4-year high in 2018Q2.
Australia's forestry sector harvested record 33 million m3 of logs in 2016-17. Substantial increases in wood costs for pulp mills in Western US and Canada in 2018Q1. Canadian lumber shipments to the US declined in 2018Q1 due to temporary supply shocks in Western Canada. Rising home prices and mortgages rates weaken home affordability.
Domestic and export Douglas-fir Log prices remain flat but strong across the Pacific Northwest. Log exports out of New Zealand pick up after Chinese New Year. North American commodity lumber prices continue to rise on tight supply. Softwood lumber exports from non-Canadian sources into US soar.
Douglas-fir sawlog prices are leveling off across the Pacific Northwest after rising sharply since July. Pine sawtimber stumpage shows modest improvements across the US South. Softwood lumber exports from British Columbia to US fall 20 percent in March amid railway woes. Softwood lumber production in the US has yet to return to pre-recession levels.
Log prices in the US South have stabilized in real terms in 2017H2 after softening since early 2016 due to excess supply in most US South’s markets. Chinese demand for New Zealand softwood logs is predicted to rise in 2018. Global trade of softwood lumber reached a record-high in 2017. Announced increased lumber capacity in the US South at around 1 billion board feet this month.
Northwest US leads timber returns in 2017 among US regions. Russia to increase log export duty, nearly prohibiting log exports by 2021. New Zealand export log prices hit new record driven by strong Chinese demand. North America lumber prices continue to soar.
Softwood sawlog prices continue to soar in the Pacific Northwest, with Douglas-fir prices reaching pre-recession levels. The US South continues to lead as the highest margin sawmill region in North America given its low-cost log structure. Lumber shipments from Canada to the US are on track to decline in 2017 for the first time in five years. Chinese logging ban to boost demand for foreign timber.